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Signs of Relief Emerging in Trade Tensions
United State
Stock Markets Rise on Trade Hopes
U.S. stock markets moved higher this week, supported by encouraging developments in trade negotiations between the U.S. and China. Optimism over potential agreements with other countries, along with President Trump’s reassurance toward Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, also boosted investor confidence. The Nasdaq Composite recorded the largest gains among major indexes, while small- and mid-cap stocks posted a third straight week of positive performance.
Strong corporate earnings further lifted sentiment. According to FactSet, 73% of companies that reported first-quarter results by Friday morning exceeded analyst expectations. Despite the positive backdrop, T. Rowe Price traders observed that trading activity remained quieter than usual.
Business Activity Slows
Economic data showed signs of a slowdown. S&P Global’s April PMI revealed that U.S. business activity grew at its slowest pace in 16 months. Manufacturing output improved slightly, but a sharp slowdown in services caused the overall index to fall. Meanwhile, prices for goods and services rose quickly, mainly because of tariffs.
Orders for durable goods increased 9.2% in March, driven mostly by a surge in commercial aircraft purchases. However, excluding transportation, orders were flat, suggesting businesses were hesitant to spend more.
Housing Market Struggles
Sales of existing homes dropped 5.9% in March, marking the steepest monthly fall since late 2022 and the weakest March sales since 2009. High mortgage rates continued to weigh on affordability, although mortgage delinquencies stayed near historic lows, according to Lawrence Yun from the National Association of Realtors.
Consumer Confidence Declines Further
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index came in at 52.2 for April. Although slightly better than earlier estimates, it was still 8% lower compared to March. Consumer expectations have fallen by 32% since January, the sharpest three-month decline since the 1990 recession. Inflation fears pushed one-year inflation expectations up to 6.5%, the highest reading since 1981.
Bond Yields Decline
U.S. government bonds posted modest gains as concerns about economic growth pushed investors toward safer assets. Municipal bonds underperformed but could find support with cash reinvestments in early May. Investment-grade corporate bonds fared better than Treasuries, helped by solid demand.
| インデックス | Friday Close | 週替わり | 前年同期比 % 増減 |
|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 40,113.50 | +971.27 | -5.71% |
| S&P 500 | 5,525.21 | +242.51 | -6.06% |
| ナスダック総合株価指数 | 17,382.94 | +1,096.49 | -9.98% |
| S&Pミッドキャップ400 | 2,831.67 | +87.28 | -9.27% |
| ラッセル2000 | 1,957.62 | +76.99 | -12.22% |
Source: Reuters, Yahoo! Finance, Bloomberg. As of 4 p.m. ET.
ヨーロッパ
European Markets Gain on Trade Optimism
European stock markets rose strongly after President Trump hinted at easing trade tensions with China. The STOXX Europe 600 index climbed 2.77%, while Germany’s DAX jumped 4.89%, France’s CAC 40 added 3.44%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB increased by 3.80%. The UK’s FTSE 100 posted a smaller gain of 1.69%.
Economic Developments
European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane said a recession is unlikely, though growth could slow due to trade uncertainty. ECB President Christine Lagarde suggested economic forecasts could be revised when policymakers meet in June.
Meanwhile, Germany lowered its 2024 GDP forecast to zero growth, reflecting the impact of new tariffs. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel warned that after two years of contraction, Germany’s economy could slip into a mild recession.
In the eurozone, business activity slowed slightly, with the April PMI falling to 50.1 from 50.9 in March. In the UK, retail sales surprised on the upside with a 0.4% gain in March, but consumer confidence weakened, and the IMF reduced its 2025 growth forecast for the UK to 1.1%.
日本
Stock Markets Rise, Inflation Accelerates
Japanese stocks climbed, with the Nikkei 225 up 2.8% and the TOPIX advancing 2.7%. The yen weakened to about 143 per dollar, reflecting reduced demand for safer assets.
Tokyo’s core consumer price index rose 3.4% year-on-year in April, the fastest pace in two years. Rising food prices and reduced government support for energy bills drove the increase. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that the bank could raise interest rates if inflation trends closer to the 2% target.
To cushion the impact of higher U.S. tariffs, Japan’s government introduced an emergency economic relief package aimed at supporting businesses and households.
中国
Stimulus Expectations Support Markets
Chinese stock markets ended the week higher, with the CSI 300 index gaining 0.46% and the Shanghai Composite up 0.61%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 2.82%.
China’s Politburo pledged to introduce new monetary tools and policy measures to protect the economy from external shocks, particularly from U.S. tariffs. Given the stronger-than-expected first-quarter economic growth, officials appear to have more time to implement stimulus gradually.
その他の市場
India and Pakistan: Rising Tensions
Tensions between India and Pakistan increased after a terrorist attack in Kashmir killed 26 tourists. India suspended parts of the Indus Waters Treaty and expelled Pakistani diplomats, while Pakistan responded with similar actions. Analysts believe both countries prefer to avoid further escalation.
Turkey: Inflation Progress Continues
At the IMF meetings, Turkish officials emphasized that tight monetary policies are helping to control inflation. The central bank reiterated that it would maintain its strict stance until inflation stabilizes, though global economic uncertainties remain a risk.
